2007 World Conference on Natural Resource Modeling

Cape Cod, Massachusetts, USA, June 19-22, 2007

Keynote Speakers

Marc Mangel

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Baskin School of Engineering,
University of California Santa Cruz, CA
http://www.soe.ucsc.edu/~msmangel/

Natural Resource Modeling in the 21st Century: The Certainty of Uncertainty

I will explain the characteristics of environmental problems that make them wickedly hard to solve. Among other aspects, wicked problems are swathed in uncertainty and in the 21st century resource modelers must confront this uncertainty. I will use a retro-classic - competition between flour beetles - to illustrate how multiple models may be brought to the same empirical situation. Coming back to the present, I will explain how Bayesian non-parametric approaches will allow us to stop arguing about the ‘correct’ form of a stock-recruitment relationship and instead let the data guide us. I will close with some recommendations for how our work should proceed in the future.

Colin W. Clark

Behavioral Ecology & Economics of Natural Resources, Mathematics Department
University of British Colombia, Canada
http://www.math.ubc.ca/people/faculty/keshet/mathbio/clark.html

Individual Quotas - the only hope for successful fisheries management?

Even under intensive management based on sophisticated model of population dynamics, many fish stocks continue to be overfished, even tothe point of collapse. The reason for this seems to be the old "Tragedy of the Commons:" fishers compete for a given annual quota, forcing them to expand effort and effort capacity to the limit, resulting in the so-called "Derby Fishery". Individual quotas (IQs) are now being increasingly used to alter fishers' incentives. This talk discusses some relevant models and data from my region (Ground fisheries in coastal British Columbia).

Alan R. Ek

Measurements and Biometrics,
Department of Forest Resources,
University of Minnesota, MN
http://fr.cfans.umn.edu/people/facstaff/ek/index.html

Modeling for Resource Analysis, Planning, and Environmental Review

The resource analysis, planning and environmental review environment for large forest based investments is described. These efforts address a wide range of resource characteristics, their dynamics, and linkages to dependent resources. The work demands integrating data from diverse sources, model synthesis, scenario development, and impact assessment. Lessons learned from such projects are emphasized, including choice of modeling approaches, error handling and reporting. Suggestions are also made for addressing the typically key questions in such assessments.

Greg Amacher

Natural Resource Economics
Department of Forestry
Virginia Polytchnic Institute & State University, VA
http://www.forestry.vt.edu/faculty/amacher.html

Uncertainty and Forest Resources

A new model is proposed to study the implications of migration and various property rights uncertainties to land use and deforestation in tropical frontier forests. Three forms of property rights risks are introduced. Illegal logging risk is associated with establishment of forest plantations. Expropriation risk is associated with land in agriculture and plantation forestry. Timber trespass threatens native forest land. Public and private landowners can reduce these risks by employing costly enforcement effort. Migration of people to forest frontiers affects both the realization of these risks but also the cost of protection. In a new model of land use dependent on a density function of land quality, we demonstrate how migration and risks lead to deforestation by promoting agricultural expansion and illegal logging. We find that higher public enforcement reduces illegal logging, but higher private enforcement may or may not reduce deforestation depending on the nature of migration pressures. Higher timber prices have an ambiguous effect on deforestation, but an increasing value of non-timber benefits decreases or leaves deforestation unchanged depending on the incentive structures of illegal loggers.